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 of the United States Census 2000 A State by State Commentary on Representation in Congress GLBT Interests as Perceived by the Human Rights Campaign |
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By Winnie Stachelberg, HRC Political Director & Mike Mings HRC Political Action Committee Manager
Washington, D.C.--Every ten years since 1790, the federal government has
undertaken the enormous task of counting every person in the country as part
of a requirement in the Constitution.
These figures--used by businesses and demographic experts--help to determine federal contracts and aid. The original intent of a national census, however, was to assess changes in the population for equal representation in the U.S. House of Representatives. The census conducted in 2000 will be used to determine the number of House seats that each state is assigned; this is known as reapportionment. Each state must then redraw all of its congressional districts based on population shifts in a process known as redistricting. With nearly all House districts being redrawn, the political landscape for the 108th Congress is unclear. Below is an assessment of the reapportionment and redistricting that will occur before the 2002 federal elections get started. The Census and Sampling The U.S. Census Bureau surveyed the American people on April 1, 2000. Millions of questionnaires were mailed and thousands of counters canvassed the country. The final numbers of the census count, and the official number of representatives each state will receive, will be released from March to July 2001. While the vast majority of Americans were counted accurately, many people and groups were missed or undercounted. People of color, people living in poverty and transient persons were the most challenging to capture. Some Democratic members of Congress proposed a sampling process to estimate the extent to which these constituencies were not represented and most Republicans favored numbers garnered from a hard count only.
Redistricting Redrawing federal and state legislative lines is generally a responsibility left to the state legislatures, and many do it differently. For federal lines, seven states will have only one delegate making these decisions: Vermont, Delaware, Montana, Wyoming, Alaska, North and South Dakota. Seven states - Arizona, Washington, Idaho, Hawaii, Maine, Connecticut and New Jersey - employ an independent commission. The remaining 36 are mapped by the legislatures. Each district is required to be nearly equal in population and must be contiguous and remain as compact as possible. In 1991 and 1992, new Justice Department regulations required states to attempt to bolster the representation of minorities by concentrating constituencies in one district. A series of court cases since then has determined that race may not be a deciding factor in drawing lines, but can be considered. Political parties, communities and incumbency protection can also be factored. Most states will roll out their plans for districts over the next year; some will work into next year. The goals will be to allow time for candidates and voters to know their districts well before the state primaries. States with early congressional primaries, therefore, will be required to produce maps earlier than those that normally have primaries in August or September. The Justice Department requires 16 states to submit their plans to the department for approval because their maps in the past did not meet its requirements. These shortcomings were mostly based on race and occurred mostly in the southern states. The Gay District Some in the gay, lesbians, bisexual and transgender community have expressed interest in creating a majority-minority district that would create a gay majority in a given place. This plan is difficult because it would require finding nearly 400,000 GLBT persons in an area that is compact and contiguous. Further, it is also not likely to be looked upon favorably by map drawers or the Justice Department because data used in drawing maps is derived from the census, which has never included a question regarding sexual orientation on its surveys. Scenarios for Select States While the new numbers and new lines have yet to be announced or implemented, one thing is certain: Redistricting will produce a dramatic increase in marginal and vulnerable incumbents, both early and late in the cycle. At their time of need - even if it is a perceived need, or does not come to fruition - incumbent members of Congress will come to their supporters, including the Human Rights Campaign, to ask for help. Like other political action committees, HRC will be expected to increase its contributions to most of its friends. Here are several examples of what might happen following redistricting. It is important to remember, however, that these decisions have not yet been made and are therefore subject to change. Arizona Long known as a GOP stronghold, Arizona's current delegation consists of five Republicans and one Democrat. Control of redistricting, however, was taken out of the hands of the all-GOP House/Senate/governor by the voters on Nov. 7, 2000, and handed over to an independent commission that will have two Republicans and two Democrats elect the final member of the committee, who must be an independent. One or both of these new districts may be drawn to have a Democratic majority of voters; if so, the state's delegation may end up with a 5-3 or 6-2 Republican advantage. California
Because Democrats picked up four seats in the 2000 election, the first priority of map drawers is likely to protect these new Democratic incumbents - Mike Honda, Jane Harman, Susan Davis and Adam Schiff - all of whom HRC supported in 2000. A new Hispanic-majority district may also be created in the Los Angeles area, which had the most relative growth in the state. Democratic mapmakers could attempt to shift precincts around in the 53 districts to force some marginal Republican seats into pick-up opportunities for Democrats. Florida Republican Gov. Jeb Bush has a solid GOP majority in both the Senate and House in Florida, and is likely to ensure that the party retains a majority of the congressional delegation. Currently, Democrats hold eight seats in Florida while the Republicans have 15 seats. The two new seats that Florida is likely to be allotted could easily be drawn for Republicans in the fast-growing Orlando area or in South Florida. Republicans could also focus on adding GOP precincts to districts held by Democratic Rep. Jim Davis, 11th Congressional District, and/or HRC Democratic endorsee Karen Thurman, 5th Congressional District, making both re-elections more difficult than in years past. Georgia In 1990, the Georgia congressional delegation consisted of nine Democrats and one Republican, Newt Gingrich. The post -1990 redistricting and the elections of 1992 brought one new seat, and therefore, eleven new districts, represented today by eight Republicans and three Democrats. The governor and both chambers of the legislature now are controlled by Democrats, who may choose to draw lines in a way that may add more Democrats to the delegation. Maryland
Michigan Democratic Reps. David Bonior, 10th Congressional District, and Sandy Levin, 12th Congressional District, have been re-elected several times to the House from marginal, conservative precincts in Macomb County. Both could be in jeopardy as the all-GOP lineup focuses on pickups - which could total two or three seats. If Bonior decides to run for governor, mapmakers could combine these two districts into one, which may still be marginal for Levin. In the upstate part of Michigan, Democratic Reps. Jim Barcia, 5th Congressional District and Bart Stupak, 1st District, hold marginal seats that could be loaded with additional Republican voters. Nevada An HRC ally, Democratic Rep. Shelley Berkley, 1st Congressional District, also faces an uncertain future. A third of Nevada residents did not live there in 1990, and public officials are constantly pressed to introduce themselves to their own constituents. Nevada picks up one seat and in the split-controlled Nevada legislature, the shift of a few precincts from Berkley's 1st district to the new district could damage the lawmaker's prospects for re-election and require her to raise more money and run a tough campaign, following the two difficult races she won in 1998 and 2000. New York In the 2000 cycle, HRC supported 17 of the 20 members of Congress who represent greater New York City, including two Republicans. Because New York is slated to lose two seats, it is likely that one will come from upstate New York while the other will be extracted from Metro New York. At first glance, the three incumbents, all Republicans, that HRC has not yet supported seem relatively safe in their districts: Vito Fossella, in a Staten Island-based district, Felix Grucci, in the eastern end of Long Island, and Peter King, representing much of Nassau County. What is left is a game of political musical chairs, where there will be fewer seats in Congress than members of Congress. Some senior members, such as Charlie Rangel, is a ranking member on the House Ways and Means Committee, are certain to be protected. Sophomore members such as Reps. Joe Crowley and Anthony Weiner will be less likely to be protected. Pennsylvania The Keystone State stands to lose two of its 21 seats in reapportionment, dealing a significant blow to a state that has had its delegation shrink continuously for many years. As the GOP took control of the Pennsylvania House in the 2000 elections, the redistricting process is entirely in the hands of the Republicans this cycle. Many speculate that map drawers could add additional GOP precincts to the Montgomery County-based 13th District, possibly weakening HRC Democratic ally Rep. Joe Hoeffel's re-election prospects. Two Democratic-leaning seats currently held by Republicans could also benefit with more GOP voters in the western part of the state - where Reps. Phil English and Melissa Hart call home. Utah The threat to real friends is also quite real. In Utah, for example, the GOP-controlled legislature could easily redraw a map that would make re-election quite difficult for Rep. Jim Matheson a Democrat in the 2nd Congressional District, whom HRC endorsed in 2000. In a state where Gore received just 26 percent of the vote, and the Democratic nominee for Senate garnered just 32 percent, the GOP could carve the three Utah districts into Republican leaning districts, thus making Matheson even more vulnerable than he is today. In the 1992 redistricting, many Democratic neighborhoods were cut from the 2nd Congressional District in an attempt to damage then-Rep. Wayne Owens' prospects for re-election. Wisconsin Losing one of its nine seats, the axe is likely to fall in the Milwaukee area, where Democratic Reps. Tom Barrett, 5th Congressional District, and Jerry Kleczka, 4th District, calls home. These Democratic districts could shrink to one - leaving it quite safe - and the surrounding GOP seats to be more marginal, though not significantly. Barrett is mentioned often as a gubernatorial candidate, and is more likely to run if his seat is carved out. Rep. Tammy Baldwin, a Democrat from the 2nd Congressional District, will have to pick up more population, which could come from conservative rural areas, Democratic precincts in Janesville or other industrial towns. If Madison is split into two seats, Baldwin's core base would be diluted, and could be a concern for her. Democrats that control the Senate will balance the GOP governor and House. Conclusion To account for the ever-changing face of America, and its growing and transient population, new lines will be drawn for all federal and state legislative districts in time for the 2002 elections. The process is partisan and likely to produce significant changes in the makeup of the next Congress. |
