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Global Climate Change Crisis |
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By Martha Heil
Environmental News Service
WASHINGTON, DC, February 24, 2000 (ENS) - Global warming will affect far more than the natural environment, climate experts said this weekend at a scientific meeting in Washington, DC. Public health, real estate, commerce and global environmental policy will all feel the heat over the next 100 years - making climate change an issue that affects everyone.
Some of the world’s top climate forecasters were in Washington, DC this week for the 2000 meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science. They reviewed research detailing a broad spectrum of potential consequences of global warming, ranging from altered water cycles, to frequent storms and floods, to displaced species.
One of the biggest research areas of the future, the scientists said, will be how global warming affects the world’s human population. Heat waves, which have already increased by 20 percent since 1949, are expected to increase the frequency of heat strokes, analysts from the U.S. National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change projected. A greater demand for air conditioning puts demands on power plants, which will in turn use more cooling water, putting more demand on scarce water situations. Levels of pollution rise as atmospheric temperatures go up, said Devra Davis, director of the Health, Environment, and Development Program at the World Resources Institute. She cited deadly concentrations of industrial smog in Donora, Pennsylvania in 1948, and in London in 1952, which were related to weather patterns like El Nino.
In Africa, a rain 60 times heavier than normal caused an outbreak of Rift Valley fever in 1998, the most recent El Nino year. Mosquitoes that carry the disease bred in the extremely wet conditions. Scientists predict that similar disease outbreaks could occur in the changing climate. "The vectors for disease are already here," said Colwell. Melting ice caps, sea level rise and frequent storms - all consequences of the projected temperature rise - could cause catastrophic floods. This can bring pollutants and waste into relatively clean areas. "It’s not just one toxin issue at a time," said Jonathan Patz, director of the Program on Health Effects of Global Environmental Change, Division of Occupational and Environmental Health, at the of Johns Hopkins School of Public Health. "We have to look at the problem integratively." Consequences for real estate are likely to be serious, said David Pimentel of Cornell University. With the projected one meter (39 inch) sea level rise, almost 15 meters (49 feet) of shoreline may be lost. Cropland is expected to decline by 30 percent, while the population is projected to double by 2075, leaving many people hungry. Western alpine forests are likely to disappear, threatening the environment and the timber industry, said Steven McNulty of the U.S. Forest Service. Aspens, maple and birch are among the trees which may have their numbers reduced by up to 90 percent. Southeastern forests are calculated to decrease by 11 percent. The researchers say that individuals, industry and government all have a responsibility to be aware of global warming’s potential effects. A committee called Integrated Regional Assessment, under the auspices of the National Science Foundation, is focusing its efforts on researching effective global warming policies, but has no specific suggestions to offer as yet. Some suggested that industry driven research would be profitable and likely to be self sustaining. "Institutions can help provide the information needed to address this issue," said Hadi Dowlatabadi, director of the Center for the Integrated Study of the Human Dimensions of Global Change at Carnegie Mellon University. Other scientists debated where the responsibility of changing practices that contribute to global warming should lie - with the individual or in government regulations.
"A system based on emissions allocations is unlikely to achieve real climate protection," said John Topping of the Climate Institute. The Kyoto Protocol, an international agreement to reduce six greenhouse gases in 39 industrialized countries, was signed in 1997, but has not yet been ratified by the U.S. Senate or by any other country whose emissions are controlled by the agreement.
Some scientists believe that governments will respond more effectively if voters make addressing climate change a priority. "We all have a responsibility to act," said Laura Westra, professor of environmental studies at Sarah Lawrence College. The media’s attention to environmental problems, like the last decade’s prominent news coverage of the hole in the ozone layer, can also motivate action. "I guess we’ll have to have a climate hole," said Steven Schneider, professor of biological sciences at Stanford University. "We’ve assumed that the future of climate will look just like the past," said Peter Gleick, president of the Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment and Security. "We can say with high confidence that that’s not true." |
Changes in climate also link indirectly to public health issues. "Cholera epidemics can now be related to climate and climate events, including ocean warming events such as El Nino," said Rita Colwell, director of the National Science Foundation. "High temperature and high sea level drives cholera levels up." The cholera bacterium is a parasite of a common plankton, and warmer waters will mean more hosts and more chances for cholera to replicate.
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