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UNEP 30 Year Outlook: |
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By Environmenal News Service
LONDON, United Kingdom (ENS) - Over 70 percent of the Earth's land surface could be impacted by roads, mining, cities and other infrastructure developments in the next 30 years unless urgent action is taken, the United Nations warns in a long term global outlook report issued today.
The planet is at a crucial crossroads with the choices made today critical for the forests, oceans, rivers, mountains, wildlife and other life support systems upon which current and future generations depend, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) says in its Global Environment Outlook-3 (GEO-3) report. Over 1,000 people, many from a global network of collaborating centers, contributed to GEO-3 which reviews the past 30 years and offers forecasts for the next 30 years. UNEP Executive Director Klaus Toepfer, introducing the report today in London, said human beings know enough right now to make the choices that can produce a healthy and prosperous planet. What is needed is the courage and the will to act. "We now have hundreds of declarations, agreements, guidelines and legally binding treaties designed to address environmental problems and the threats they pose to wildlife and human health and well being," Toepfer said. "We can never know for certain what lies before us, the future is another country," he said. "But we know enough now to see how our actions or lack of actions might shape the environment and the inhabitants of this extraordinary blue planet by 2032." The GEO-3 outlook warns that Latin America and the Caribbean region are likely to be hardest hit with more than 80 percent of the land affected by development. In Asia and the Pacific region over 75 percent of the land may be affected by habitat disturbance and other kinds of environmental damage as a result of rapid and poorly planned infrastructure growth.
Friends of the Earth today welcomed the publication of what it called a "hard-hitting" United Nations report. Tony Juniper, director designate of Friends of the Earth, the world’s largest grassroots environmental network, said in London, “This report provides yet another wake up call to the world. We face massive problems which require international action if we are to prevent global tragedy. Time really is running out. The Johannesburg Earth Summit is crucial. It is vital that the world’s most powerful nations show leadership and put people and the planet ahead of national and corporate interests." Juniper urged world leaders to agree on "global rights for people and global rules for big business" at the Earth Summit which opens August 26 in Johannesburg. He had a warning for the United States - which under President George W. Bush has backed away from international agreements such as the Kyoto Protocol - other nations will pass the U.S. by on their way to planetary health. “If rogue nations like the U.S. are unwilling to participate in international coalitions such as the Kyoto climate change treaty, then new coalitions must be formed to put long term well being before the short term profitability of large companies," Juniper said. "Countries attending the Earth Summit must not be dragged down by the standards of the most short sighted.” GEO-3 had a hopeful outlook on global warming. Concerted action involving governments, industry and individual citizens could deliver deep cuts in emissions of the gases linked with global warming, the report says. With sufficient public and private will, levels of carbon dioxide could begin stabilizing in the atmosphere by 2032. Clean drinking water is going to be in short supply, the UNEP report warns. More than half the people in the world could be living in severely water stressed areas by 2032 if market forces drive the globe's political, economic and social agenda, GEO-3 predicts. West Asia, which includes areas such as the Arabian Peninsula, is likely to be thirsty with over 90 percent of the population expected to be living in areas with "severe water stress" by 2032. On the positive side, the proportion of hungry people in the world appears set to fall. Under one future scenario, hunger declines to as little as 2.5 percent of the global population by 2032 - in line with the United Nations Millennium Declaration goals. In its Outlook chapter, GEO-3 outlines four policy approaches leading to different outcomes over the next 30 years. Two of the most contrasting scenarios are termed Markets First and Sustainability First. One envisions a future driven by market forces; the other by far reaching changes in values and lifestyles, firm policies and cooperation between all sectors of society. Focusing on fresh water, the difference between the two scenarios is striking. Under the Markets First scenario, the number of people living in areas with severe water stress, both in absolute and relative terms, increases in virtually all parts of the globe. An estimated 55 percent of the global population is affected, up from over 40 percent in 2002. The highest proportions of people living with severe water stress are in West Asia, with over 95 percent, and Asia and the Pacific, with over 65 percent. Under a Sustainability First future, most regions see the area under water stress remaining more or less constant or even falling as more efficient management of water reduces water withdrawals, especially for irrigation. In West Asia, the number living in areas of severe water stress is kept at around 90 percent of the population. In the United States, the number of thirsty people halves to around a fifth of the population and in Europe, it drops from around a third now to just over 10 percent by 2032. Toepfer is looking towards the Johannesburg World Summit on Sustainable Development as the forum where heads of government and heads of state can choose to take concrete action that will turn the planet from the path of environmental destruction. "Ten years ago, governments met in Rio for the Earth Summit. In just three months, we have the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) in South Africa," he said today. "This is a summit for sustainable development, but it is also a summit for the environment. Environment for Development is UNEP's motto, for without the environment there can never be the kind of development needed to secure a fair deal for this or future generations." All three GEO reports are available online at: http://www.unep.org/geo/ |
Klaus Toepfer 
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