The world's fresh water, says the prestigious organization, "is insufficient to meet the needs of a much larger population for long time periods, "and no technology in sight can fill the gap.

"The planet's renewable fresh water is finite," explains P.A.I.'s literature, "10,000 cubic miles' worth is available each year on average--and constraints on its availability and use are increasingly evident. The growth of population inevitably limits the average availability of fresh water per person.

"To the extent residential, commercial and industrial development ignores these natural constraints, the growing human thirst for fresh water comes at the expense of natural ecosystems and threatens the survival of animal and plant species.

"In years past water scarcity was at most a local or temporary problem, but it is now becoming pervasive and persistent in some regions of the world. Desalination is too labor-and-energy-intensive to add much to the world's supply of fresh water or to contribute to the availability if fresh water for agriculture.

"Pricing water appropriately can encourage more efficient use, but much of the world's use of water is not even metered and will be difficult to price. Even if technologically feasible, any solution to water shortages that involves moving massive amounts of water over long distances would have major impacts on the environment, altering or destroying wetlands and riparian habitats essential to the survival of other species.

"In 1995, about 386 million people in 31 countries lived in conditions of water stress or water scarcity, based on hydrological benchmarks of the minimum annual per capita availability of renewable fresh water needed for economic development. 1

"By 2020 the number of people living in such conditions could be as high as 2.9 billion or as low as 1.2 billion, depending on the rate of population growth over the next 24 years. 2

"By one recent estimate, more than half of all the world's accessible renewable fresh water is already being used, indicating the problems the world may face if population doubles. 3

"One of the largest recipients of U.S. foreign aid, for example, is Egypt, whose 62 million people depend for essentially all their water on the flow of the Nile River. Among the greatest threats to Egypt's long term security is the fact that nine other nations have access to the Nile's water before it flows into Egypt. More than 80 percent of the river's water rises out of just one nation, Ethiopia, which has a rapidly growing population and ambitious plans for the development of its water resources.

"The countries that share the Nile--including Kenya, Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda, Eritrea, Tazmania and Congo--face a long process of learning to cooperate on water development and conservation. They also face the need to stabilize their populations before pressing against the limits of their finite supplies of renewable fresh water, and before peace in the Nile River basin is threatened by water scarcity. 4

"Lack of water is already a desperate problem with little hope of long-term resolution in densely populated urban environments such as Mexico City and Beijing. This is not just a developing world problem. Rapidly growing cities in Texas, California, Florida, Arizona and Nevada are finding that the availability of renewable fresh water is constraining their prospects for continued growth.

"Fresh water is essential for farming, for industry, for human health and life itself. Every living being on land and in lakes and rivers requires it, and the more water humans use the less remains for these non-human species, many of them already threatened by habitat loss.

"There is much scope for using water more efficiently, and some scope for developing new water sources. Nonetheless, the difficulty of matching human needs to the earth's supply of renewable fresh water can only increase as population grows. Slower growth can provide needed time for developing creative solutions to water scarcity.

For More Information contact: Population Action International, 1120 19th Street, N.W., Suite 550, Washington, D.C. 20036