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By Bill Eggertson
Environmenatl News Service
Panic sets in whenever people just think of a shortage of oil or conventional fuels, Don Aitken told the annual Solar Energy Society of Canada conference in Halifax on Monday. Panic sets in whenever society realizes that a transition is inevitable as a result of the end of an era, although he says the current panic over oil is earlier than expected. The use of fossil fuels has peaked and the world has started the transition to renewable energy, he says, but decision makers has failed to understand that fossil fuels must be used to help that transition. Even if another major oil discovery is made, that would only extend the global dependence on fossils by another five or ten years. The last time panic was demonstrated was during the OPEC crisis of the 1970s, when the United States was forced to adopt emergency laws to prevent car owners from filling up prematurely and causing long lines at gasoline service stations, he explained.
There is an astonishing lack of understanding by people about climate change, adds Aitken, who is also an officer of the International Solar Energy Society and a past president of the American Solar Energy Society. Critics who say that global emissions of carbon are relatively trace amounts, ignore that the human body contains trace amounts of many minerals which cannot get out of balance without forcing a response by the body.
The increase in global emissions will demand that the Earth respond, but there is no history to predict what the response will be. An average car emits its own weight in carbon every year, and he says every measurement indicates that the atmosphere is being impacted by the use of fossil fuels. The energy that comes down to earth must remain stable with the energy going out, or Earth will become either a Venus or a Mars. A doubling of carbon emissions is inevitable, and Aitken says the Kyoto Protocol was designed to avoid a trebling of emissions in the near future. The Kyoto agreement is part of the United Nations process to oblige 39 developed countries to reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases below 1990 levels. In Canada, emissions must drop by 200 megatons a year by the end of this decade. Canada's solar industry "is on the verge of a big jump," Bob Douglas of Bay Consulting told conference delegates. But it must increase its commitment to work with its solar association and supportive government, and follow the lead set by other nations in setting goals such as the target of solar roofs. Most solar companies in Canada have developed their business plans "by accident," says Douglas, who released the initial results of his study to the Halifax conference. Despite 30 years of business, he classified the domestic industry as in an "introductory phase" with poorly defined markets, high overhead and low profits, low customer service, and too much reliance on "early adopters." The study identified promising applications for technologies which use solar energy to heat water and air in the industrial, commercial and institutional market. Despite significant improvements and lower costs, it found that the industry would not have survived against conventional energy sources without the support of government subsidies. A number of solar thermal systems that were installed following the OPEC crisis are not working properly, and Douglas recommended that they should be either fixed or removed to restore the image of the solar industry in Canada. Support for renewable energy will not grow until there is a fundamental shift in how the economy is measured, declared keynote speaker Ron Coleman, a former Saint Mary's University political science professor who developed the Genuine Progress Index. Coleman based his classroom project to measure the real worth of human activity on a concept articulated in a 1995 story in "The Atlantic Monthly" magazine, titled "If the Economy is Up, Why Is America Down?" In it, authors Clifford Cobb, Tad Halstead and Jonathan Rowe propose a different measure than the standard Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a blunt instrument that identifies the total quantity of goods and services produced by a society. They suggested a Genuine Progress Indicator. It is the difference between the politics of resource efficiency and resource consumption that makes it difficult for many people to understand the need to shift from fossil fuels to renewable energies, Coleman explained.
"The faster we burn fossil fuels, it makes our economy grow," Coleman said. "We are all part of the conspiracy, it's not just the politicians. Society must measure value based on durability and lifecycle costs. Global warming is potentially the most catastrophic challenge facing the world and there is no reason why solar energy should not be receiving huge investments, Coleman urged. A project of the Fallsbrook Centre in Knowlesville, New Brunswick, is the empowerment of people in Nicaragua with solar energy, Jean Arnold told the conference delegates. Fallsbrook staffers are training landmine victims from the Sandanista-Contra war and victims of landmine explosions in the fields and forests upended by Hurricane Mitch to become solar culture spreaders in the rural Northern areas of Nicaragua. They are making solar ovens, solar dryers and doing solar installations in community buildings. "The Canadian government may wish to consider developing new strategies and approaches to accomplish its stated objectives for investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency," says a report from the Commissioner of the Environment and Sustainable Development presented at the conference. The federal Renewable Energy Strategy of 1996 says the government wants to increase investments in renewable energy, and the government has said for many years that it wants Canadians to use energy more efficiently, according to a report tabled in the House of Commons earlier this year. "Overall, we found that with a few exceptions, federal government support today for energy investments, including support through the tax system, does not particularly favour the non-renewable sector over the renewable sector," Bob Pelland told conference delegates. Pelland is a member of the team from the Office of the Auditor General that conducted the year long study. "Most of the federal spending and tax incentives have been for non-renewable resources, the predominant source of energy in Canada," he confirmed. But a market study prepared for the federal government found a willingness to adopt solar technology if the price is right. About 60 percent of the 1,600 respondents to the poll by KPMG Consulting said they would trade their present diesel generators for solar photovoltaic (PV) or PV-hybrid systems if they were available at a reasonable price. KPMG estimates that there are 800,000 homes and cottages across Canada that are not connected to the utility grid. The study infers that 6,600 homes could convert to solar photovoltaic power generation within two years and another 5,400 homes in the three years after that. In an analysis of telecommunication companies, more than half of the carriers already use PV systems in 38 installations, while another 61 new systems are estimated for the next five years, plus another 100 repeater sites will convert to PV during the same period. Although only two PV systems are currently used by broadcasting companies in Canada, another ten systems are expected to be installed in the next five years. Other key markets identified by KPMG are parks, where solar electric units can be used in emergency telephones and electric fences to deter bears, and the oil and gas industry for remote pipeline monitoring and cathodic protection. The benefits most cited by the 1,600 respondents were that solar photovoltaic systems are reliable, technologically proven, environmentally friendly, reasonably priced, a cost effective fuel supply, and partly supported by government grants or tax breaks. System cost is the most cited barrier to the adoption of solar systems, followed by lack of information regarding the technology. "Establishing a strategy through which Natural Resources Canada can build user confidence and satisfaction with the product is essential for market penetration, the KPMG report advises. |
HALIFAX, Nova Scotia, Canada, (ENS) - The world is starting to see the panic that will inevitably result during the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energies, says the senior staff scientist on renewable energy with the Washington, DC based Union of Concerned Scientists.
"The more quickly we deplete our natural resources, the more rapidly our economy will grow," the said, noting that the Exxon Valdez accident contributed more to the economy by spilling oil in Alaska than it would by delivering the cargo.
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